Assistant Professor Dylan Brewer's article "Changes in Electricity Use Following COVID-19 Stay-at-home Behavior" was published in Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy. Brewer writes:
In the article, I study how electricity consumption changed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
First, I show that consumption declined by 2.7 – 3.8% in the first few months of the pandemic. However, from June through August 2020, electricity consumption was 2.1 – 3.5% higher, which was an unexpected finding. To explain the increase in electricity consumption, we look at cell phone location data to understand how social distancing behavior contributed to the unexpected increase in electricity use.
I find that time spent at home reduces electricity consumption, and a reduction in time at home after May lead to increased electricity consumption in the summer months. In addition, higher temperatures had an increased effect on electricity consumption in 2020 relative to previous years. Nationwide monthly data on electricity consumption by load class reveals that commercial and industrial consumption was below the expected level from March to December 2020, while residential consumption was often above its expected baseline, peaking in July.
This suggests that increased demand for residential cooling offsets declines in commercial and industrial demand for electricity. Estimates of the total effect of the pandemic on electricity consumption from March through December 2020 suggest that early reductions in electricity use were just about perfectly offset by later increases, implying that any expected "silver lining" of decreased emissions from electricity generation may be smaller than previously thought.
The research has implications for a future where more jobs are work from home. First, policies targeting residential electricity consumption will target a larger proportion of load in these scenarios. More residential load means residential energy efficiency has additional value relative to previously, which may increase the payoff of residential energy efficiency programs. Residential demand response programs will also be more important for reducing peak demand.
Abstract
This article uses hourly electricity consumption data from the PJM Interconnection in the United States and stay-at-home metrics from cell phone location data to study the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption using a difference-in-predicted-differences strategy. I show that while in the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic total electricity consumption declined by 2.7–3.8% relative to a predicted counterfactual, in June through August 2020 electricity consumption was 2.1–3.5% higher than the predicted counterfactual. Time spent at home reduces electricity consumption, and a reduction in time at home after May lead to increased electricity consumption in the summer months. In addition, higher temperatures had an increased effect on electricity consumption in 2020 relative to previous years. Nationwide monthly data on electricity consumption by load class reveals that commercial and industrial consumption was below its expected baseline from March-December 2020, while residential consumption was above its expected baseline, peaking in July. This suggests that increased demand for residential cooling offset declines in commercial and industrial demand for electricity. Estimates of the total effect of the pandemic on electricity consumption from March through December 2020 suggest that early reductions in electricity use were offset by later increases, implying that any expected "silver lining" of decreased emissions from electricity generation may be smaller than previously thought.
Read more: https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.12.1.dbre
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